August Prediction: High Intensity
(probability of high: 55.2%, probability of medium: 43.2%, probability of low: 1.6%)
(SST data for early prediction unavailable this year)
Outcome: High Intensity (ACE index: 162)
Prediction (Using SST data): High intensity
(probability of high: 60.3%; probability of medium-low: 39.7%)
Updated Prediction (Using OLR data): Medium Intensity
(probability of high: 0.7%, probability of medium: 79.7%, probability of low: 19.5%)
Outcome: High Intensity (ACE index: 148)
Prediction (Using SST data): Medium-low intensity
(probability of high: 29%; probability of medium-low: 70.9%)
Updated Prediction (Using OLR data): High intensity
(probability of high: 85.66%; probability of medium: 1.75%, probability of low: 12.59%)
Outcome: Medium Intensity (ACE index: 95.1)
Prediction (using SST data): Medium-low intensity (probability of high: 33.11%; probability of medium-low: 66.89%)
Outcome: High intensity (ACE index: 145.1 units)
Prediction (Using SST data): High intensity (probability of high: 86.88%; probability of medium-low: 13.12%)
Outcome: High intensity (ACE Index: 180.37 units)
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