Previous Years Predictions

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Prediction (Using SST data): Medium-low intensity

(probability of high: 29%; probability of medium-low: 70.9%)

Updated Prediction (Using OLR data): High intensity

(probability of high: 85.66%; probability of medium: 1.75%, probability of low: 12.59%)

Outcome: Medium Intensity (ACE index: 95.1)

Prediction (using SST data): Medium-low intensity (probability of high: 33.11%; probability of medium-low: 66.89%)

Outcome: High intensity  (ACE index: 145.1 units)

Prediction (Using SST data): High intensity (probability of high: 86.88%; probability of medium-low: 13.12%)

Outcome: High intensity (ACE Index:  180.37 units)