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Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Intensity PredictionSeasonal Atlantic Hurricane Intensity PredictionSeasonal Atlantic Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Previous Years Predictions

2024

August Prediction: High Intensity

(probability of high: 55.2%, probability of medium: 43.2%, probability of low: 1.6%)


(SST data for early prediction unavailable this year)


Outcome: High Intensity (ACE index: 162)

2023

Prediction (Using SST data): High intensity

(probability of high: 60.3%; probability of medium-low: 39.7%)


Updated Prediction (Using OLR data): Medium Intensity

(probability of high: 0.7%, probability of medium: 79.7%, probability of low: 19.5%)


Outcome: High Intensity (ACE index: 148)

2022

Prediction (Using SST data): Medium-low intensity

(probability of high: 29%; probability of medium-low: 70.9%)


Updated Prediction (Using OLR data): High intensity

(probability of high: 85.66%; probability of medium: 1.75%, probability of low: 12.59%)


Outcome: Medium Intensity (ACE index: 95.1)

2021

Prediction (using SST data): Medium-low intensity (probability of high: 33.11%; probability of medium-low: 66.89%)


Outcome: High intensity  (ACE index: 145.1 units)

2020

Prediction (Using SST data): High intensity (probability of high: 86.88%; probability of medium-low: 13.12%)


Outcome: High intensity (ACE Index:  180.37 units) 


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